Guo Mingji: Apple iPhone 12 will cancel the random included AirPods

Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingji released new exposure of raising 2020 AirPods shipments to 93.8 million units (vs. previous 80-90 million units). The expected AirPod shipments to be in 2H20 ushered in strong growth.

There are three reasons: (1) The new iPhone 2H20 (iPhone 12) may cancel the randomly turned on wired headset (EarPods) to stimulate the demand for cheaper AirPods 2 (second-generation AirPod). (2) AirPods 2 depletion will end in 2Q20. (3) Apple may have an AirPods promotion plan in 2H20.

AirPods shipments are at the bottom of the year in 2Q20, and 2H20 will provide strong growth. Influenced by the epidemic and declining stocks, weak demand for AirPods 2 led to a decrease in total shipments in 2Q20 by about 29% QoQ to 17.2 million units. However, demand for AirPods 2 will resume from 3Q20 to maintain strong demand with AirPod Pro. AirPods is expected to grow 40% QoQ, 44% YoY / 17% QoQ, 39% YoY in 3Q20 / 4Q20.

Mr. Guo Mingji believes that there will be three suppliers in the update of this report. Who will benefit significantly from the significant increase in AirPods 2 shipments in 2H20, including Luxun Precision, GoerTek, and Yaohua.

AirPods 2 shipments in 2H20

1. Luxeon Precision is AirPods largest assembly manufacturer and direct beneficiary of AirPods supply growth. Benefiting from a recovery in demand for AirPods 2 and strong demand for AirPod Pro. The Lixin Precision AirPods business is expected to exceed market expectations. Luxeon Precision is expected to begin shipping AirPod from Vietnam in 2-3Q20.

2. Goertek’s AirPods 2 production line has been profitable since 2019, so 2H20 profits will grow due to a significant increase in AirPod 2 shipments and an increase in the share of shipments. The company’s profitability in 2H20 is expected to improve significantly thanks to a significant increase in AirPods 2 shipments and an increase in supply ratios from 45% to 50-55%. GoerTek is expected to ship AirPods Pro from Q2 to Q3 of the year 20. And about half of them will be manufactured in Vietnam.

3. Benefit from increased shipments of AirPods 2 and iPhone 12. Yaohua will have a very strong 3Q20 / 2P20 growth. Revenue in 3Q20 is expected to grow by more than 100% on a quarterly basis. While in 4Q20 it will continue to grow on a quarterly basis. Under the influence of inventory reduction, the share of supplies of Yaohua AirPod 2 printed circuit boards in 2Q20 dropped significantly to 10%. But it is expected that the share of shipments of the company will increase significantly to 55–65% compared to 3Q20. So it is expected that it will be shipped in 3Q20 / 2P20 Kinetic energy will increase significantly. As for the iPhone, the share of battery panels will increase significantly from 10-15% of the iPhone 11 to 50-55% from the 6.1-inch iPhone 12. Which will also contribute to revenue growth and profitability in 2H20.

The latest news of Apple iPhone 12:

Recently, foreign media has summarized the latest news and current news of the iPhone 12, which is why people are looking forward to it.

1. Appearance

The metal frame will be further extended to the back glass to increase the anti-fall performance. The newly added dark green of the iPhone 11 Pro will be replaced by a brand new blue.

2. Screen

iPhone 12 Pro and above models will be equipped with 120Hz Pro-motion variable refresh screens. All four iPhone 12s will be equipped with OLED screens (bye the thick border of iPhone 11).

3. Battery

The battery is expected to be larger than the previously reported 4400mAh. But the specific capacity is unknown.