Japanese evacuees reveal fundamental secrets of new coronavirus

On February 4 2020 , a total of 20,479 new coronavirus pneumonia cases were confirmed

426 died
655 cases recovered
A total of 23,214 suspected cases.

Due to a large amount of complex data, the required light must be captured quickly.

In fact, after 13 days of progress, with stringent prevention and significant progress in the investigation, isolation, and prevention and control, data from outside the province finally entered a turning point.

On February 1, 668 new cases were reported in other provinces. Which was significantly less than the 752 cases reported on January 31. An increase of 9 per cent was also reduced by 9 per cent).

But unfortunately, on February 2, the number of cases in other provinces increased to 722. And the issue was raised again.

We should know that 5 million people in Wuhan return home in the joy of the New Year. Which began in early January and continued until the close of Wuhan on January 23 (year 29).

The incubation period of the NCOV virus is usually 2-9 days (up to 14 days), on average 7 days. In addition, the average time for admission and counselling + nucleic acid testing was 4 days, which was 11 days in total, and Wuhan Fengcheng has 12 days.

The case spread animation was produced by “Chinese Meteorological Enthusiasts” and used with permission. Thank you.

In other words, most of the imported cases that left Wuhan and were infected have already appeared and have been diagnosed.

Later in other provinces, there will be new cases, which will be mainly affected by close contacts. It can be predicted that growth figures will continue to decline. Infection point coming soon.

Data from other provinces

In addition, the data from other provinces is sufficient and accurate. The investigation is detailed, and the path to infection is clear. The main infections were relatives, who were related to the family. Some are friends and colleagues. Here are some examples of local infections.

About 133,000 close contacts (about 1:21) of 6028 certified patients from other provinces have entered or ended medical observations. Most of the people returning to Wuhan are also in the isolation of the home, which shows that the epidemic is highly controlled.

Unprecedented Special Spring Festival

This year’s prevention and control situation are quite different from 2003 when there were not many cases of SARS in most provinces. And the epidemic was mainly concentrated in Guangdong. The original location and Beijing were imported for medical treatment.

In most areas only returning personnel from Beijing need to be isolated and observed. and rarely see people wearing masks.

After 17 years of rapid economic growth, the unprecedented popularity of high-speed railways, highways, autonomous cars and air travel has taken many steps in the movement of Chinese people and accelerated the spread of the virus.

The growth of domestic aeroplanes and train passengers is four times more than the current railway arrivals in 2003 (1 billion passengers per unit).

Wuhan, in particular, has a population of 14 million, only 1% of China’s population. Being the centre of China’s economic geography, it is the complete resource of a nine province, a transportation hub and a crossroads.

Against the Spring Festival, more than 5 million people who may be affected are scattered all over the place, putting unprecedented pressure on prevention and control. This is unimaginable in 2003.

On the brighter side, Spring Festival holidays are meant to keep 1.4 billion Chinese residents at home, minimize personnel mobility, eliminate social connections and make everyone more “isolated.” It is possible to use, which is effective in reducing the spread of the virus

At this time, in other provinces, the pandemic situation has been largely controlled. And those who usually go out often wear masks (which also increases the demand for masks). And The transmission route is completely controlled.

At the same time, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other major cities have extended the construction time to the Lantern Festival, leaving time for isolation following the return of this spring’s festival. Many office workers also started in the extraordinary 15 days of the Spring Festival holiday.

Wuhan is in urgent need of rescue

As mentioned earlier, the current data from Hubei and Wuhan are seriously behind due to technical factors. Such as over-burden of medical resources and diagnostic inadequate supply.

Due to the severe shortage of medical resources, people with severe illnesses have been exposed one after another. Due to a lack of beds, they cannot be treated, and they can only seek help from the community. Some patients died without time to enter epidemic data.

At the moment, designated hospitals that can get viral pneumonia (serious cases of influenza and new coronavirus) have 6,754 beds already under supersaturated utilization (actually 6,808 people).

On the evening of February 2, Wuhan announced the acquisition of a new number of hospitals. Which subsequently opened 2,183 beds, totalling nearly 9,000 beds. Estimates are still important.

The other good news is the Vulcan Mountain and Thunder Mountain Hospital, built by Chinese miracles. Vulcan Mountain Hospital will provide 700 ~ 1000 beds, and Raytheon Mountain Hospital will provide 1000 ~ 1500 beds.

From the afternoon of February 2, Wuhan Vulcan Mountain Hospital was handed over to the management of the squad. And on February 3, patients were received, the People’s Liberation Army prepared 1,400 medical staff to perform therapeutic tasks. Is.

Thunder Mountain Hospital will also be transported on the fourth date, and patients will be accepted from the 5th. It is expected that eleven thousand beds will be provided for respiratory departments in all these hospitals.

So, a mystery is, how many people are infected with the virus and how many patients with severe pneumonia in Wuhan?

The latest estimate of the British Royal Institute of Technology, which initially predicted at least 4,700 affected people in Wuhan, was 30,000.

The Hong Kong School of Medicine published a study of mathematical models in The Lancet January 31, which reported that 75,815 people were affected in Wuhan on January 25.

This paper examines the number of expatriates departing from Wuhan (the average number of international overseas travellers a week is 3,633, about 100,000 a month) and events (28 out of 78 incidents). Is based on.

In addition, the ROI was calculated at 2.68 (which is the mainstream average of scholars from different countries). And this number doubled in 6.4 days with no intervention.

Then it is assumed that the rate of infection among Wuhan people abroad is similar to those living in Wuhan. And it has been affected by 75,800 people in the 25th Wuhan (75% confidence interval between 37304 and 130330 people).

The volume of overseas air travel to Wuhan in 3 months (left) and 1st of February (right) of last year (flying from Wuhan to destination)

Indeed. , Their figures show Wuhan, a population of 19 million, is a metropolitan area, which is obviously unrealistic. Wuhan’s original residential population is 11 million and the administrative population is 14 million.

According to the proportion of Hong Kong scholars, the number of affected people in Wuhan should be 43,800 by 9 million on the 25th.

A team called “Tsinghua AI” predicts that the maximum number of confirmed cases will be 42,000 to 60,000.

Some people say that the estimates of the scholars are still very rough. But the specimen has appeared to be sufficient for estimation.

Foreign citizens’ evacuation proves the presence of asymptomatic victims

Since the expulsion of Chinese overseas from Wuhan, countries have undergone a very rigorous inspection. The epidemic survey of these groups is also very detailed and thorough and is extremely informative.

A total of 1,149 overseas Chinese were evacuated from Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Germany, and 16 were found to be infected with the virus, accounting for 1.39%.

If this is the case with only diasporas in one country, it may be a cluster or sporadic issues. But in many different countries in the East and West, diasporas ratio is the same, which can explain the problem to a certain extent.

Japan evacuated 565 people in three batches

Of these, Japan, which has the highest number of evacuations, provided a more detailed report.

In the first charter flight on January 29, 8 out of 206 people had cough and fever, but the first test appeared negative. 3 tests were positive, but only 1 had obvious symptoms (temperature was 37.9 داخ at admission), after an increase of 38.7)), 2 were asymptomatic.

There was also diaspora that had coughing in Wuhan on the 26th and when it arrived it had a low fever (less than 37 ° C). The third test showed negative results in both tests before the virus was detected. But by then the symptoms have improved rapidly. By February 1, there was still a slight cough, but the fever had not appeared.

Overall, 1 had more obvious symptoms, 1 had mild symptoms, and 2 had no symptoms.

In the second batch of charters, on January 30, 13 out of 210 people had cough and fever, but tests showed that all 13 were negative.

In addition, in non-cultured groups, 2 people were tested positive but none showed any obvious signs of it.

On the third charter flight, on January 31, 10 of the 149 people had a cough and fever, but only 1 of them was diagnosed as mild (moderate fever, below 38 ° C), and one And was asymptomatic but was found to be carrying it.

That is to say, a total of 565 overseas Chinese were withdrawn from Japan, and 31 had cough and fever (approximately 5.5%), and only 3 of them detected the virus (about 10%). Is gone But in addition, 5 other people had the disease and they had the virus.

There were a total of 8 confirmed carriers of the virus, 5 were asymptomatic, 2 were mild (1 had a low temperature of 37 ° C and 1 in healing, 1 had a moderate fever below 38 ° C), and 1 I had more obvious symptoms (over 38 ° C)

Most people have no symptoms of the virus.

What is an epidemic?

These statistics prove that the virus infection is far higher than most scholars have imagined, but statistical standards vary.

Most carriers (over 60%) are asymmetric and do not even know they have been infected with the virus. 25% of people have mild symptoms and are basically able to heal themselves.

Only 15% of people are seriously ill (body temperature is above 38 ° C).

In addition, there have been several cases in China where the virus was found only after three or four consecutive tests.

At present, Japan ’s inspections of evacuees are the most comprehensive samples.

Evacuation from Japan

According to epidemiological statistics, the number of asymptomatic, mild and palpable symptoms in Wuhan per 100,000 emissions population is 885, 354 and 177, respectively.

However, using small sample data to reverse the larger sample will have a significant bias. But starting with a sample of a thousand people, there will no longer be subversive orders of magnitude.

With regard to more rigorous inspections in China and other regions outside the province, it can be estimated that for each downstream population in Wuhan, the number of acute illnesses and deaths was 31 and 0.6 (still developing, and This increase is expected).

Pushing back to Wuhan, which currently has a population of 9 million in the city, it can be estimated that the number of people carrying the virus with obvious symptoms requiring treatment is about 15,000, of which the number of severe cases should be about 3,000.

Therefore, Wuhan’s medical resources are still tense under the current deployment.

Japanese evacuees reveal the fundamental secrets of the new coronavirus

On the evening of February 2nd, the national level has pointed out that ensuring the prevention and control of the epidemic in Hubei, especially Wuhan, is a top priority. The state has concentrated manpower and material support.

The meeting decided to speed up the construction of hospitals and beds in Hubei, and organize more high-level medical and nursing staff such as breathing and critical care to support Hubei.

In addition, it is important to consider the influenza epidemic in winter

Of course, the basic outbreaks of winter need to be considered. According to Public Health Accounting, in a city of 100 million people, 800 to 12 million people will be affected by the flu each year, and at least 12,000 of them will need to be hospitalized.

The current epidemic is fraught with tension and chaos. Wuhan’s stats are clearly empty, but you can quote the situation provided by Wuhan’s next city.

Xiaogan, which is located in the northwest around Wuhan, is from the Wuhan metropolitan area with Huanggang in the east and is very closely related. Currently, the number of epidemics is second only to Wuhan, which is the third and second highest in the country.

According to the situation presented by Mayor Xiaogan, from January 22 to January 31, the city had a population of 5.06 million (the total registered population of Xiaogan was 5.175 million at the end of 2018), with a focus of 390,000 from Wuhan. Returning

All suspected patients who were referred to the clinic for consultation and were admitted to the hospital for treatment were included in the test object.

In the early days, due to the ability to detect, nucleic acid detection methods and thresholds are high, ie fever is higher than 37.3 ° C, and then chest radiographs to complete the detection of other pathogens, and Finally, the expert group will discuss it. And fix

With such stringent criteria, the proportion of confirmed cases from suspected cases was only 38%.

Hubei Health and Health Commission has announced the number of hot clinics and visits and observations in various cities for 3 days

In later years, as daily detection capacity increased to about 400 copies, the scope of detection targets was widened. In recent times, the proportion confirmed for diagnosis was only 18%.

As of January 31, Xiaogan had administered a total of 11,524 patients with fever (more than the number of consultations) and decided on 1059 suspected patients (more than the number of observations). A total of 628 cases of new pneumonia coronary confirmed (increased to 2 days by 918).

Map of administrative divisions of prefecture-level Xiaogan City (including Yunmeng, Yingcheng, Anlu, Xiaochang, Dawu, Hanchuan, etc.) and Wuhan

You can also easily and accurately refer to the measurement samples of Japanese expatriates.

From 31 people with cough and fever to actual nucleic acid tests, only 10% were diagnosed with the virus.

In the early morning of January 22, Tongji Hospital issued a fever clinic, and many patients waited in line all night to call. Beijing News reporter Xiang Kaishe

In other words, even in the current situation, 80% to 90% of fever patients in the Wuhan metropolitan area is just common colds and flu, not new crowns. But they all need treatment, especially in critically ill patients.

Continue to understand the flu

The flu is not a public health emergency. It arrives in winter every December, January and February.

Scientists believe that it has many factors: 1, cold winter, losing temperature and ease of catching cold, reducing immune system resistance;

2: The air is dry, and water will quickly evaporate into infected droplets, and the droplets will shrink rapidly, so a small “center” that can stay in the air for a long time, Will not form, easily fall to the ground and increase significantly. Opportunity to spread the virus.

In previous articles, influenza has been widely defined, but due to time constraints, it is still scattered, especially due to infection, hospitalization and complications, organized intuitive, clear display.

Therefore, there was a more organized pattern.

It can be seen that the probability of influenza spread is about 1/9 of the total population each year, and it can reach 1.5 times the peak years, which is on average 1-10 /.

In the United States, less than half (about 45%) patients usually go to a hospital for treatment. Since the flu itself is usually no major illness, only 1.6% of the affected people (about 1/700 of the total population, or 1 in every 700 people) need to be hospitalized.

But if you get to the hospital, it’s high risk – the final death toll is almost 1/11, that is, 1 in every 11 patients eventually dies due to dangerous underlying diseases.

Of course, since there are very few influenza patients who need to be admitted to the hospital, the mortality rate of influenza is much lower than the population. Scrub through layers, the probability is 1/8000. / 900).

It is difficult for ordinary people to meet, difficult to imagine, and does not cause panic. So, “Beijing Middle Ages Under the Flow” is a big surprise – “can the cold die too?”

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