Coronavirus Update: How did the epidemic end? Depends on 3 important parameters!

How "asymptomatic" spread the coronavirus

Prevention and control of the coronavirus outbreak across the country have progressed to the milestone on the 17th.

On February 17, data revealed that 79 new patients were diagnosed in areas other than Hobby. Since the peak of 890 events on February 3, it has been falling for 14 days (2 weeks) and fell to double digits for the first time.

After the correction (including reduction and increase in previous data), the increase was reduced from 888 cases to 81 cases. It is clear that the days of achieving “zero growth” are not far off.

It is predicted that all import and local infectious diseases outside Hubei Province will be expected to remain within 13,000.

However, Wuhan’s figures are high.

Coronavirus update

What will be the end of the coronavirus outbreak?

In fact, the situation in this new epidemic of the coronavirus is completely different from outside Wuhan – Hubei Province, Hubei Province.

Hubei, especially Wuhan, is in really hot water. Medical resources are seriously inadequate. The people can’t find a cure, medical staff is out. And prevention and management are very disturbing.

Outside of Hubei province, there are not many import cases, and local governments are strictly regulating them. All cases, suspected cases, and close contacts are very closely organized and properly dealt with.

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The basis of “smooth adjustment”

The main reason behind these differences is in the size and scale of about 9 million, 3.25 million. And 1.75 million people (previous estimates) that they remain in the city as a source of epidemic and production, returning to Hubei. And moved out of the province. The difference in rank and ratio.

We now know that before the Spring Festival and before the city closed. The total number of Wuhan’s residential population. The import cases and contact infection cases were 125,000.

Public health accounting is done on a scale of 100,000 people. And the total number of cases is around 715.

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The number of hospitalized patients is still high in Hubei. And about 9,000 people have not been hospitalized. The number of cases in Hubei Province is still decreasing after 12 days.

Indeed. , 1.75 million is still an accurate estimate. And some provinces and cities have revealed specific demographic data.

For example, the Shandong Platoon has detected a total of 69,180 people returning from Wuhan to Shandong. So far, there have been 543 incidents.

Together with the 390,000 returning population of Xiaogan that we introduced earlier. We can no longer rely on Japan and South Korea’s new figures for precision.

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From the table, we can see that there are 1.75 million outside the province. The 3.25 million inside the province and 9 million remaining in the city.

Wuhan announced that 10.59 million people were investigated on February 9. and the percentage of people surveyed reached 99.8 per cent. If these figures are correct, it shows that the actual population of Wuhan in the city is 10.6 million, 1.6 million less than previously expected.

An analysis of the causes should be related to the closure of Wuhan at 10 am on the 23rd (29th year). This is the last working day of the year. And many people who are still working will have to leave in the future.

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In particular, most of the population in Hubei Province was planning to leave Wuhan on their own and return to their hometown within the last day or two.

Based on this, we adjusted the population emissions from Wuhan into and out of the province at 1.6 million. And 20 million, respectively, which is factual and the data in all aspects is more consistent.

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And according to data from 10.6 million people living in Wuhan City. The proportion of cases per 100,000 people in Wuhan on February 5 was only 1/5 of the emissions population. And still only 1/2. This is so wrong!

The Central Steering Group also issued instructions.

Compared to the input area, the exact number of victims in Wuhan is not fully known. And the scale of the spread cannot be accurately estimated. According to the calculations of the parties concerned. The potentially affected base in Wuhan may still be relatively large.

Coronavirus Update: Simple and efficient technical progress

Due to all the transfer of affairs, they were relocated there before the city closed.

According to the proportion of the population. Theoretically, the actual number of victims in Wuhan is 75% in the country. The 15% (about 20,000) in other cities in Hubei. And 10% in other provinces around the country (about 13,000). Since the majority of the population had to leave earlier. So the chance of infection is slightly lower). this is true.

Of course, the vast majority of people affected by lightning in Wuhan have recovered without diagnostic tests. This will eventually reduce the case statistics to some extent.

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But now it appears that the biggest barrier to diagnosis is nucleic acid testing.

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) fluorescent probe method used in this process takes 6 hours to several hours, several million machines, and the number of people is very limited. Also the number of people who can bee limited.

But now fast and cheap antibody detection technology has developed. And antibody detection kits have created everywhere.

With just one drop of blood, test results canbe obtained by visual inspection within 15 minutes. And canbe detected after the patient’s plasma diluted from 500 to 1000 times.

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The detection of blood antibodies has strong sensitivity and high specificity, which can effectively break the limits of detection techniques at personnel.

Now that it has approved the initial clinical diagnosis and is awaiting final approval, the rest is mass production. If the production speed is fast enough. We will do a population census in Wuhan to quickly identify the affected people.

In recent days, following the change in coach. Wuhan has again promoted the “check-in and checks out” task. The number of victims in Wuhan is expected to be fully realized in a few days.

Coronavirus Update: Epidemic A—Rescue Greater Wuhan

More than 32,000 medical staff supported Hubei. They mainly come from breathing, infections, acute and other symptoms, as well as a large number of nursing staff.

In response to the acute illness characteristics in Wuhan. The country has helped 11,000 medical professionals with acute illness, which is close to 10% of the nationally important medical staff.

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The number of beds in designated hospitals in Wuhan has increased to 20,000, and investment is continuing. In the past two days, the provinces once again dispatched medical staff to assist Wuhan.

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Side B of the epidemic that restores the national economy

2020 is an important year recorded in the annals of history. At the beginning of the year, such a large “closed city”, “closed road”, “closed building” and business never closed.

The “shutdown of the city” and the suspension of business operations have led to a sudden drop in investment, production, revenue and consumption at the same time. It is also unique.

Now is the critical time to plan and control pandemic diseases and to plan the overall plan for economic and social development.

But is it safe to return to work?

Some people think that the infection has a long incubation period, or that it is completely unhealthy. So the virus is uncontrollable

Special issue of media coverage is not equal to Normal situation

These days, some suspected special cases have reported at various locations. Such as those who cannot find a solid source of infection, and in one case the incubation period is more than 14 days.

Each matter can stir public opinion about whether or not to resume work.

However, keep in mind that the number of cases certified outside the province is about 125-125,000. On this basis, media reports are special issues, not general issues.

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So far, many cases have been in close contact, or two strangers have been close to each other without wearing masks.

Most importantly, the alien market was informed that it was close to 15 seconds. There was also a sensation in this case.

But this is clearly a special case in most cases. It should be so scary. With advanced transport in modern society, the world is turning red.

The first two key parameters

For that number, since evaluating the national pandemic situation in the second half on February 5, I have been looking carefully for these parameters.

After more than ten days of repeated verification and calculation, the answer finally got through.

The roots of the calculation came from the Shandong, Yichang, and Beijing Health Commission, which revealed detailed data. See chart:

chart

Answer

Parameter 1: After strict prevention, the input in the first period is at R0 1, ​​which is about 0.5 ~ 0.65. Basically, they are close contacts.

In other words, there are 125,000 cases outside the province, about 8,000 people in Wuhan have basic export cases, and 4,000 people are in close contact with the affected people. There are also some cases of unknown origin.

Parameter 2: Closer contact with normal-scale ratios (10 people), the probability of infection is about 5%.

The third Key parameter

According to a February 4 article by scholars such as Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, according to 101 cases outside the Hubei province, 97.5% of people will develop symptoms within 10.5 days. Delays may be up to 20 days short. It’s estimated that the spread over 14 days is 0.75%.

In addition, researchers from hospitals around the country, Zhong Nanshan provided more data in an earlier published article on February 9, 13 cases out of 1099 cases exceeded 14 days, and 1 case found itself Told 24 days.

new data chart coronavirus

On the basis of this calculation, the proportion of coronavirus outbreaks that lasted more than 14 days was 1.1%. Which translates into approximately 4,000 other distant contacts and affected authors across the country.

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